Aim:
This study examines how state-level procurement performance shapes India’s food security outcomes by assessing the linkage between procurement efficiency, minimum support prices (MSPs), and Public Distribution System (PDS) offtake across major grain-producing states.

Material and methods:
Using a panel dataset spanning 2005–2023 for rice and wheat across Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, random- and fixed-effects panel regressions were estimated alongside diagnostic tests for heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and multicollinearity. Procurement efficiency was quantified through the Procurement Efficiency Ratio (PER), Contribution Ratio (CR), and Gini coefficient to track inequality and concentration trends.

Results:
Punjab and Haryana demonstrate strong MSP responsiveness, high efficiency, and disproportionately large contributions to national grain stocks. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh under-contributes despite its production dominance, reflecting institutional bottlenecks. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.48 to 0.63, indicating rising concentration and systemic risk. Panel regression results also show that procurement significantly drives national PDS distribution, with lagged effects.

Conclusions:
Institutional capacity not production alone determines effective procurement. Strengthening procurement systems in lagging states, diversifying sourcing regions, and embedding efficiency monitoring mechanisms are critical for enhancing equity and resilience in India’s food security architecture.