RESEARCH PAPER
ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE DEREGULATION OF THE DAIRY MARKET AND CAP REFORM IN POLISH DAIRY FARMS IN 2014-2020
 
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Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny
Acceptance date: 2014-09-22
Publication date: 2014-09-22
 
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics 2014;340(3):119–135
 
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ABSTRACT
Changes in the Common Agricultural Policy and in particular the elimination of milk quotas will affect on the organization of production on farms and consequently on their economic results. The analysis concerned the impact of changes in the milk market on revenue of specialized dairy farms in Poland in the years 2013-2020. The study was conducted on seven model farms, which were built on the basis of selected farm groups within the FADN, due to the number of cows in herd size. Based on the available forecasts was constructed the most likely (NPP), the optimistic (OPT) and pessimistic (PES) scenarios of the milk price. In all scenarios of milk prices was assumed the same trend in costs incurred in farms. The study was conduct-ed using a model TIPI-CAL (Technology Impact and Policy Impact Calculation). Research shows that farms with less than 20 cows in the herd may expect deterioration in family farm income and income from management and risk in 2020 compared to 2011. In the other hand farms characterized by greater scale of milk production will reach family farm income in 2020 almost on the same level as in 2011, in the most probable scenario. Income from management and risk will be lower in these farms in 2020 relative to 2011, while in the holding M-25 may take negative values.