RESEARCH PAPER
THE COMPARISON OF A SELECTED METHODS FOR TESTING THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK IN AGRICULTURE IN POLAND
 
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1
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu
2
Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Żywnościowej - PIB
Acceptance date: 2014-12-08
Publication date: 2014-12-08
 
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics 2014;341(4):117–130
 
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ABSTRACT
The aim of the article is to compare the methods for testing business outlook in agriculture in Poland and evaluation of their usefulness for the development of agriculture. One has compared three methods in the article: used by the IERiGŻ-PIB (synthetic indicator of business outlook of agriculture the SKWR), Institute of Regional Development SGH (index of business outlook of agriculture the OWK) and in a marginal extent GUS (evaluation of business outlook of farms). One has stated that the rate of the SKWR can be a barometer (reference ratio) with respect to indicator of the OWK. It results from the overtaking of the phase of the cycle for the SKWR compare to the OWK about 1 quarter. At the same time one has recognized the relatively clear synchronization of these cycles (after cleaning of the series from trend, seasonal and random fluctuations). The length of the extracted cycles in agriculture in the examined period amounted an average about 12-13 quarters. Simultaneously they were asymmetric. The phase of growth was more gently and long-term, in turn downward proceeded rapidly and lasted less.
eISSN:2392-3458
ISSN:0044-1600